Stats Station: Game 1: TOR 7 – WPG 2

This series is a companion series to the ever infamous Reactions by R make sure to check out that post as well!

 

*All stats are from hockeystats 

 

With a 7-2 blowout, it would be easy to dismiss this game as one-sided and a poor goaltending performance but if you #WatchTheGame, you likely noticed the Jets take control of the early part of the game.

The Leafs took four penalties in the first period alone and eight in total with the Jets being unable to capitalize on any of these power plays in large part thanks to a stellar performance from Frederik Andersen. Taking a look at the numbers would seem to back up this narrative with the Jets finishing the game with 37 shots to Toronto’s 31, outshooting them in the first period 17-11 and again in the second period 10-8. Even what some refer to as the “advanced” numbers follow this trend with the Jets having 71 shot attempts (or Corsi For) and the Leafs only having 53 attempts at the net.

Do the numbers fit the goaltending perception as well? Freddie Andersen saved 35 of 37 shots for a .946 save percentage while Steve Mason only stopped 15 of 20 (0.75 save percentage). An outstanding performance from Freddie and lackluster at best by Mason. So far, the eye test pans out.

This is why you sometimes have to dig deeper.

The Leafs took eight penalties (one more penalty than goals scored) and the Jets took four meaning there was little time spent at even strength. After the first period, the Jets had four Power Plays but the Leafs had three goals, two of which were during 5 on 5 play.

So how did both teams fare during 5 on 5 action? Of the Leafs seven goals, five of them were at even strength. Both of the Jets’ goals were as well. Shots at even strength are much closer than the game’s total with the Jets barely edging out the Leafs 18-17. (Andersen saved 16 of 18 5v5 shots for a 0.888 sv% while Mason stopped 10 of 13 before getting pulled, putting up a 0.769 sv% at 5on5.) The shot attempts mirror this finding as well, ending at 38-37 Jets.

The final game stat I want to look at is a bit more complicated and would certainly fall under the dreaded term “Analytics”: Score-Adjusted Corsi. Puck On Net describes it as such:

“The basic premise of score adjustment is that for each game state we can calculate a team’s difference from the league’s average in that game state and then weight that difference by how important that particular game state is.”

Score adjusting takes a basic concept of desperation and compares it to complacency. When a team is behind in a game, they tend to take more offensive risks in an attempt to generate more shots toward the net and therefore goals. When a team is ahead, they tend to fall back into the proverbial defensive shell and focus more on preventing shots rather than taking more shots of their own.

This will tactic will drive up shots and shot attempts from the losing team and drive down shots and attempts from the leading team, thus valuing these differently. Using this metric, the Jets still edge out the Leafs 63-62, but the Leafs lead 5-on-5 with a Score-Adjusted Corsi of 43 to 34 for the Jets.  

 

Now to focus on the Leafs.

 

Leafs penalty kill was a perfect 8 for 8 and their power play went 2 out of 4 (goals from Kadri and Marner). Mike Babcock-led teams tend to be very good at special teams and so far so good for these Leafs.

At 5-on-5, the team metrics above show that the Leafs held their own against the Jets, but how do the players fare individually? Thanks to the eight penalties, the penalty killers tired themselves out and didn’t get as much 5v5 time as the rest of their usual linemates. This especially applied to Zach Hyman and Leo Komarov, playing just over 8 and 9 minutes a piece at 5v5 while Matthews and Kadri (their usual centres) played over 10 minutes each.

Using the 5-on-5 Corsi numbers from above and putting them into percentage form, we can tell how each player did while they were on the ice. As a team, the Leafs’ 37 shot attempts account for 49.33% of the shot attempts in the game (Corsi For %). The top player on the team for this was Connor Carrick who had a 67.74 Corsi For % meaning that, when he was on the ice, the Leafs got 67.74% of the shot attempts that occurred. The worst was Nikita Zaitsev’s 26.09%. Although Zaitsev spent a lot of his minutes on the penalty kill so his 5-on-5 time was limited. The Leafs 4th line of Martin-Fehr-Brown had a good game with all three players being above 55% (66.67%-63.64%-57.14% respectively).

The other lines were a bit mixed and matched all game thanks to the penalties so instead of going line by line, I’ll just mention a few notables.

Kadri: 61.54%

Marleau: 50%

Marner: 52.17%

Van Riemsdyk: 47.62%

Bozak: 35.29%

Matthews: 48.15%

Nylander: 51.85%

Rielly: 39.13%

Gardiner: 44%

 

 

At the end of the game there was a lot to like as a Leafs fan in this game. Even outside of the obvious seven goals, the penalty kill was perfect, the power play was killer, and they stayed solid at 5 on 5, scoring five goals to keep the Jets at bay.  

 

That’s it for this Stats Station, the brand new post Leafs game stats analysis series! And be sure to check out the sister series Reactions by R!